We already have a broad brush planning strategy for Sydney called the Sydney Metropolitan Strategy – A Plan for Growing Sydney that sets out key directions for where new housing and jobs should be located. In terms of the Northern District of Sydney, the District Plan seeks to ‘accelerate housing supply, choice and affordability and build great places to live, by working with councils to identify suitable locations for new services, jobs and homes close to transport, including the North West Rail Link, the Western Line, the Cumberland Line; the Carlingford Line, the Bankstown Line and Sydney Rapid Transit’.
But a lot of change has happened since the Metropolitan Strategy was released in December 2014. The most important change has been the establishment of the Greater Sydney Commission which is undertaking the next layer of planning for Sydney by developing six District Plans that are coordinated by the relevant District Commissioner. For the Northern District this is Dr Deborah Dearing, an experienced urban planner with extensive experience in both government and in the private sector. Another big change is the sale of the poles and wires that comes with the election of the Baird Government that provides the funding for major infrastructure like the new metro rail system and motorways and hospitals like the Northern Beaches Hospital. Some councils have been abolished and amalgamated with other councils under local government reforms.
From an industry perspective the Urban Taskforce whose members represent the property and development industry we see four important issues that need to be addressed. These are firstly housing supply where we are underperforming, secondly the big swing to apartment living, thirdly the changing nature of jobs and fourthly the provision of infrastructure and how this is funded.
1. HOUSING SUPPLY
The Sydney Metropolitan Strategy identifies the need for 664,000 new homes for Sydney over 20 years. This equates to 33,200 a year average but in boom times, like we are in now, we should be well over this number, probably around 37,000. The reality however is that we are only producing just over 27,000 new homes a year during this boom time which is 10,000 below what should be happening. The fundamental problem is that the planning system is very complicated and this acts as a brake on housing production. This is a critical issue for the Greater Sydney Commission to address.
With fewer homes than we need the obvious result will be to push prices up and this is exactly what is happening. Sydney’s homes, both houses and apartments, are amongst the most expensive in the world. The Northern District will need to do its bit in lifting housing production but with little greenfield land much of this will need to be urban renewal in the form of apartments.
2. APARTMENT LIVING
The biggest change to how we live in Sydney has been the incredible swing to apartment living. We now have around 35% of dwellings in Sydney as apartments and approvals for new housing is running at 70% for apartments. Within a decade Sydney will be half apartments and half houses. There are two groups driving this change. The first is young people aged 25 to 35 who want to live close to the action, close to urban centres, entertainment and to jobs. The other group is the over 60s who in retirement look to downsize where they can be surrounded by amenities including restaurants, cinemas and coffee shops. This group often want to stay near their family so apartments and popular in centres like Chatswood, Hornsby, Dee Why and along rail lines.
3. NEW TYPES OF JOBS
While we are changing where we live the other trend is about the new types of jobs. The old manufacturing industry jobs are diminishing and new creative industry, service industry and finance jobs are taking over. This is leading to new employment hubs like Macquarie Park and a rethink of jobs in centres like St Leonards, North Sydney and Hornsby. Clearly the relationship between where we live and where we work will be important in terms of travel times. The Prime Minister has talked about 30 minute centres in cities like Sydney where work is only 30 minutes from home.
Another growing area for jobs is in the health centre and this is partly driven by the ageing population. According to the latest Intergenerational Report, 40 years ago there were 100 people in NSW aged over 100, there are now 1,500 but in 40 years’ time there will be 16,000 people in NSW over the age of 100. Clearly these people will have an impact on the health budget.
4. INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING
The big issue the District Plans will need to address is infrastructure to support our growing population. Sydney will ultimately need a metro/ underground rapid rail system like London, Paris and New York. But new metros are not cheap. The NSW Government has moved to get this underway from The Hills down to Chatswood then through Crows Nest, North Sydney and then through the city to Bankstown. I can see even more lines needed in the future as John Bradfield proposed with his rail proposals a century ago. He proposed a line up to the Northern Beaches and maybe this will eventually happen. Of course a Metro Rail will need much more density to drive patronage than our low rise suburban model provides so apartments and metros may work together.
The NSW Government is selling the poles and wires to help fund infrastructure but more is needed. One option being looked at is the concept of value capture, where those that benefit from new infrastructure contribute towards the cost. I am sure governments will be looking closely at all funding options as Sydney moves from a city of five million people to eight million by 2050. Sydney, including the Northern District will certainly be very different by mid-century.
